Macro Regime
Live ClassificationCurrent Regime
Risk-On /
Late Cycle
Late Cycle
Confidence70.7%
Score+0.88
Beta0.74x
Signal Confidence70.7%
Portfolio Posture
Net Exposure50% – 65%
Gross Exposure120% – 140%
StanceSelective Risk-On
IG Credit Spreads
79.0 bps
Historically tight — 12th pct YTD. Credit pricing minimal stress.
HY Credit Spreads
288.0 bps
Risk appetite elevated. 12th pct — well below historical stress.
2s10s Yield Spread
+0.61%
Modestly positive — constructive. Inversion fully resolved.
3m10y Spread
+0.39%
Barely positive — watch for re-inversion as leading recession signal.
VIX — Fear Index
19.1
Mild concern zone. Elevated vs. complacency but well below stress threshold (30).
Fed Funds Rate
3.64%
Restrictive. WIRP: ~3 cuts by EOY 2026. Terminal ~3.08%.
Unemployment
4.3%
Rising gradually — within healthy range. NFP Feb survey: +60K.
ECO Surprise Index
+0.192
Positive all year — US data consistently beating expectations.
5y5y Breakeven
2.13%
Long-run inflation expectations anchored near Fed target.
SMIF Fund Performance
Bloomberg PORTRelyea Fund
AUM: $321M · 23 Positions
+3.61%
YTD Alpha vs SPY: +2.52%
TEV5.32%
VaR 95%8.75%
Beta0.76x
Top RiskNVDA
COBE Impact Fund
AUM: $166M · 36 Positions
+4.54%
YTD Alpha vs SPY: +3.45%
TEV7.35%
VaR 95%12.08%
Beta0.68x
Top RiskAAPL
Dykman Fund
AUM: $537M · 27 Positions
+2.01%
YTD Alpha vs SPY: +0.92%
TEV6.22%
VaR 95%10.23%
Beta0.76x
Top RiskNVDA
Catalyst Calendar
Bloomberg EVTS + ECAL
Feb 24
Medium
HD / NRG / CEG / AXON Earnings Day · Bef-mkt & Aft-mkt
Multi
Feb 25
High
NVIDIA Corp After close · Q4 2026 · All 3 SMIF funds
Est $1.53
Feb 26
Critical
Initial Jobless Claims 08:30 ET · Survey: 215K | Prior: 206K
—
Mar 4
High
Broadcom Inc (AVGO) After close · Relyea + Dykman
Est $2.03
Mar 6
Critical
Nonfarm Payrolls 08:30 ET · Survey: +60K | Prior: +130K
—
Mar 11
Critical
CPI YoY / MoM 08:30 ET · Last print before March FOMC
Prior: 2.4%
Mar 13
Critical
GDP Q4 2025 — 2nd Estimate 08:30 ET · Prior: 1.4% annualized
—
Mar 18
Critical
FOMC Rate Decision 14:00 ET · Market pricing: HOLD · Implied 3.626%
—
Apr 30
High
Microsoft Corp (MSFT) After close · YTD -17.7% · ALL 3 FUNDS
Est $4.04
May 1
High
AAPL · AMZN · MA · MCD · WMT Mega-cap earnings day
Multi
Fed Rate Path · WIRP
March 18, 2026
Market Pricing: HOLD
03/18/263.626%Hold
06/17/263.494%-2 cuts
09/16/263.262%-3 cuts
12/09/263.084%-3+ cuts
01/27/273.055%Terminal
~3 cuts priced by EOY 2026
Terminal rate: ~3.08%
Gradual easing — not emergency
Source: Bloomberg WIRP 02/20/26
Terminal rate: ~3.08%
Gradual easing — not emergency
Source: Bloomberg WIRP 02/20/26
Market Pulse
Live · Yahoo FinanceIndex Futures
S&P 500$6,923+0.51%
Nasdaq 100$25,068+0.68%
Dow Jones$49,674+0.34%
Volatility & Benchmark
VIX19.1-1.13
SPY$689.43+0.68%
Sector Performance — Today
Comm. ServicesXLC
+1.44%Consumer Disc.XLY
+1.04%Real EstateXLRE
+0.83%FinancialsXLF
+0.65%IndustrialsXLI
+0.50%Info. TechXLK
+0.48%Health CareXLV
-0.28%EnergyXLE
-0.54%Top Gainers
GOOGL$314.98+4.01%
MU$428.17+2.59%
AMZN$210.11+2.56%
NRG$179.18+2.38%
NFLX$78.67+2.17%
Top Losers
OKLO$63.83-5.63%
BBY$64.48-2.75%
XOM$147.28-2.44%
AXON$433.91-1.63%
WMT$122.99-1.51%